Rabindra Nath Sinha

Several conclusions, interesting and of political import, are instantly possible from an analysis of the Bihar Assembly election results announced on Friday, November 14. The most telling of these inferences is that the Bharatiya Janata Party, despite being for the first time the single largest party with 89 seats in a 243 member-House, is not in a position to do a Maharashtra where Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena had to step aside for Devendra Fadnavis, who had earlier headed a BJP-led ministry.

The reason is simple. The imprint of chief minister Nitish Kumar on the Bihar result is so emphatic that despite his party Janata Dal United’s tally being four less at 85, BJP has to accept that the strong NDA performance is attributable to the chief minister’s widely acknowledged clean image and his drive for the welfare of women, dalits and other extremely backward classes.  

Also, the BJP top brass is aware that if circumstances warrant, Nitish can be tough and, therefore, any attempt by them to manoeuvre to get the chief minister’s post may backfire They remember how in June 2010 Nitish had returned a Rs five crore cheque sent by then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi for relief of the victims of the Kosi river belt floods in 2008.

Nitish then had taken strong exception to Modi’s publicising his initiative in helping out Bihar’s flood victims. There is one more reality. In Bihar, after the demise of party veteran and deputy chief minister Sushil Modi, BJP does not have a presentable CM face in whom the electorate may see an alternative.

 The second inference from the outcome is that Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Lalu Prasad Yadav’s charisma has faded in the circumstances he has been passing through because of corruption charges, prolonged litigation and his failing health.

Moreover, he has been contending with fissures in the family because of the rebellion of his eldest son Tej Pratap who too has been nursing political ambitions and acting against Tejashwi, whom Lalu has been promoting for the chief minister’s position.

Political watchers whose assessment IPA sought told this correspondent even within the party there are sections who doubt whether the younger son is worthy of being the state’s chief minister ; an alternative to Nitish. There are also doubts whether RJD’s Yadav-Muslim vote bank of RJD is intact.

If the new factor of Assauddin Owaisi’s Hyderabad-based All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (Majlis) is taken into account, lot of traditional Muslim votes have shifted from RJD in 2025 polls to NDA and also to AIMIM.

A pertinent question is whether Tejashwi has been able to expand the Yadav vote bank and attract other very backward sections to support RJD. Majlis put up candidates on 15 seats in the Muslim-majority Seemanchal region which has 24 seats.

AIMIM has won all the five seats in had bagged in 2020 polls and according to indications available on November 14 evening,, Its vote share was estimated to have risen to 1.87 per cent from 1.24 per cent in 2020. It is safe to suggest that Majlis and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party, which fought on many seats, have dented the vote share of Mahagathbandhan.

The third conclusion is that the Congress, which had put up candidates in 61 constituencies and could win only six seats, continues to be organizationally very weak. The party’s district-level outfits are virtually non-functional and serious attempts to activate them have just not been made. Abrupt change of guards at the PCC and DCC levels and virtual absence of serious political activity in the form of agitational programmes and workers’ conferences have been costing the party in elections.

Organisational elections, which activate party workers and help induction of new faces, do not have any priority in the party’s scheme of things, sources told IPA. The practice of ‘friendly’ contests in about a dozen seats in the absence of compact seat-sharing deals has also cost both the Congress and RJD.

The fourth conclusion is the quiet emergence of Lok Janshakti Party’s (Ram Vilas) youth leader Chirag Paswan as a factor to be taken serious note in Bihar’s politics. Chirag, who is a Union minister at the Centre and for bringing whom under the NDA fold BJP legitimately can claim credit, has left a mark in the Assembly elections.

He put up candidates on 28 seats and LJP (RV) bagged 19 of them on Friday. It merits to be reckoned as an impressive show, given the fact RJD under Tejashwi’s stewardship had contested 143 seats but could bag just 25 of them , down from 75 in 2020 polls. Political observers see in him an aspirant for Bihar’s chief ministership and wonder, given the BJP top brass’s soft corner for him, whether he would be drafted as deputy chief minister in the upcoming Nitish-led ministry.

 A widely shared view in political quarters is that women-centric schemes greatly helped Nitish, his party and NDA, in general. A one-time financial assistance of Rs 10,000 was extended to 1.21 crore beneficiaries associated with Jeevika.

It cost an estimated Rs 12,100 crore. On Nitish’s part, it was taking a big risk financially ; politically, it was tantamount to a gamble. The scheme was rolled out on September 26 by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The poll schedule was announced by the Election Commission of India on October 6. This particular scheme and other women-centric initiatives taken earlier by the chief minister helped him substantially in mobilizing across caste lines women voters’ support. His party, JDU, was able to increase the women vote share to 19.03 per cent from 15.39 per cent in 2020 polls. BJP gained marginally, to 20.42 per cent from 19.46 per cent.

Nitish Kumar’s earlier initiatives were reservation for women in panchayats and municipal bodies (2006) and 35 per cent reservation for women in state police (2007). The decision to enforce prohibition was also intended to improve the quality of life of women. Laxity in enforcement and malpractices are there ; but one cannot fault the intention of Nitish, said knowledgeable quarters.