Shillong | Meghalaya’s Mawsynram and Sohra, among the wettest places on Earth, are facing a growing risk of drought as climate change alters rainfall patterns, bringing more intense rain over fewer days and raising temperatures, according to a new study.

Published recently in Theoretical and Applied Climatology, the study analysed projected climate and hydrological data for Meghalaya and adjoining areas for 1981-2100 to examine why increasing rainfall intensity could coincide with rising drought vulnerability.

Researchers Ashesh Rudra Paul and Pankaj Kumar Roy found that rainfall is increasingly concentrated in intense spells, while light rainfall and the number of rainy days are declining. The study recorded a rise in the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), with the maximum local increase reaching 0.08 mm per day per year.

At the same time, the number of rainy days declined by an average of 0.40 days per year. SDII measures the average amount of rainfall received on a wet day over a specified period. “Contrary to the conventional expectation that increased precipitation alleviates drought,” the researchers said, the findings showed “a clear tendency toward elevated drought risk” in Meghalaya.

The findings are also reflected in observations from the region. Residents of Sohra and Mawsynram reported that several waterfalls and waterbodies have been drying up earlier this year, with the trend becoming visible by mid-September.

“Many waterfalls in Sohra area are getting dried, and I am seeing this as early as mid September,” said P Hujon, a resident of Mawkisyiem who runs a guest house. The changing rainfall pattern poses a particular challenge for Meghalaya because of its steep terrain and shallow soils. Intense rainfall can quickly run off the surface instead of infiltrating the soil, limiting groundwater recharge.

“Such rainfall concentration enhances surface runoff and reduces infiltration,” the study said. This means that even heavy monsoon rainfall may not ensure adequate water availability during prolonged dry periods. Rising temperatures are adding to the pressure by increasing evapotranspiration-the loss of water from soil, vegetation and other surfaces. The study found minimum temperatures rising by as much as 0.08 degrees Celsius per year.

The researchers used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) over a three-month period to assess drought conditions. Their analysis indicated an increasing frequency and intensity of moderate, severe and extreme drought events, particularly under the high-emission SSP585 scenario.

The study also projected changes in river flows. Hydrological modelling of the Sari-Gowain and Surma-Meghna river basins showed a possible maximum decline of 9.8% in mean annual streamflow in the Sari-Gowain basin in the far future under SSP585. The projected decline for the Surma-Meghna basin was as high as 11.6% under the same scenario.

The researchers cautioned that the analysis did not account for human-induced factors such as deforestation, urban expansion, land-use changes and groundwater extraction, all of which can further influence water availability. The findings highlight a growing paradox for Meghalaya: a region known for extreme rainfall could increasingly face water stress if rain becomes more concentrated, temperatures rise and longer dry spells emerge.