Naman Singh

The changing nature of modern warfare has brought the importance of domestic ammunition production into sharp focus. Recent conflicts have demonstrated that military strength is determined not merely by the sophistication of weapons but also by the ability to maintain adequate supplies of ammunition, missiles, drones and counter-drone systems over an extended period.

For India, the challenge is particularly significant. Despite both its principal adversaries being nuclear-armed nations, the possibility of prolonged conventional conflicts under a nuclear umbrella cannot be ruled out. Future battlefields are expected to be dominated increasingly by drones, missiles and precision-guided weapons. However, artillery and armoured formations will continue to play important roles, albeit with evolving tactics and operational concepts.

The experience of ongoing conflicts has underlined a crucial lesson: a country cannot afford to depend excessively on foreign suppliers for ammunition during a war.

The conflict involving Iran has exposed the limitations of even the world’s most advanced military supply chains. US President Donald Trump has acknowledged that American stocks of certain critical munitions have declined following the conflict. The Pentagon has reportedly been compelled to shift ammunition reserves from Asia and Europe to the Middle East to meet operational requirements.

Although the United States manufactures most of its ammunition domestically, its experience highlights two important weaknesses. First, several advanced weapons systems depend on rare earth elements and other strategic materials sourced from China. Second, the emphasis on highly sophisticated and expensive weapons has created a production imbalance.

As defence analyst Michael Horowitz has pointed out, the American military’s shift towards quality over quantity has left it with limited production capacity for certain weapons. The use of multi-million-dollar interceptor missiles against relatively inexpensive drones has further exposed this weakness. Replenishing such sophisticated weapons could take years, particularly when production facilities are unable to meet sudden increases in demand.

The experience has forced Washington to reconsider the economics of using expensive missiles against comparatively cheap aerial threats.

Ukraine is facing similar difficulties. Shortages of AIM-9 Sidewinder and AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles, along with maintenance constraints, have affected the operational availability of its F-16 fighter fleet. Some aircraft have reportedly remained grounded because of difficulties in securing missiles and maintenance support.

Ukraine has also been compelled to rely on cannon ammunition against Russian drones as stocks of air-to-air missiles have dwindled. Its dependence on European manufacturers for artillery ammunition and foreign facilities for aircraft maintenance has further complicated its military operations.

The maintenance of F-16 aircraft illustrates the problem. Inspections that would normally take two to four weeks have reportedly stretched to as long as 40 weeks in certain cases. This has reduced aircraft availability at a time when operational requirements remain high.

Ukraine is also struggling to maintain adequate stocks of PAC-3 interceptors for its Patriot air defence systems. It has consequently explored alternatives, including the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system, which uses Aster missiles and offers a comparatively less expensive option. Germany, meanwhile, is considering expanding Patriot missile production to address the growing demand.

Russia has adopted a different approach to sustaining its military requirements. It has increased domestic ammunition production while also sourcing supplies from friendly countries, including North Korea. Its missile production capacity has reportedly reached around 100 ballistic missiles a month. It has also relied on China for certain components, including jet engines for its Geran-series drones.

These developments demonstrate that domestic manufacturing capacity, combined with reliable international partnerships, can significantly influence a country’s ability to sustain prolonged military operations.

For India, the lessons are particularly relevant. The country has historically depended on imports for several critical weapons systems and ammunition requirements. Following the use of Russian S-400 air defence systems during Operation Sindoor, India placed orders for an additional 288 missiles, covering both short- and long-range variants. It also ordered 216 Excalibur precision-guided artillery rounds from the United States at a cost of approximately $47.1 million. Efforts are additionally under way to explore the domestic co-production of Javelin anti-tank missiles.

Such purchases remain important for strengthening military capabilities. However, they also highlight the risks associated with dependence on external suppliers, particularly during periods of heightened geopolitical tensions.

Foreign supplies can be delayed, restricted or disrupted by the priorities of exporting countries. Such interruptions can have serious consequences during an active conflict. Dependence on imports also increases foreign exchange expenditure, limits strategic autonomy and can restrict access to critical technologies.

India learnt this lesson during the 1999 Kargil War. After expending thousands of artillery rounds during the initial stages of the conflict, the country faced shortages and was compelled to procure around 50,000 rounds from South Africa. Mortar ammunition also had to be sourced from Israel.

Despite this experience, comprehensive reforms in domestic ammunition production took considerable time to materialise. A decisive shift towards self-reliance gathered momentum after 2014.

Recognising the strategic importance of reducing import dependence, the government began expanding domestic defence manufacturing under the broader objective of Aatmanirbharta. An important component of this transformation was the restructuring of loss-making defence public sector undertakings through corporatisation, with the aim of improving their efficiency and commercial performance.

The government also opened the defence manufacturing sector to private companies and increasingly prioritised domestic procurement over imports. Academic institutions and research organisations were encouraged to collaborate with industry in developing advanced and smart ammunition.

The results have been significant. India now manufactures more than 150 of the 175 types of ammunition used by the Army, meeting approximately 90-91 per cent of its requirements. This represents a substantial improvement from the estimated 32 per cent of requirements met through domestic production in 2014.

The improvement is particularly important given earlier concerns over inadequate war reserves of ammunition, which had also been highlighted by the Comptroller and Auditor General.

The focus has now expanded beyond conventional ammunition to emerging technologies. With drones becoming increasingly important in modern conflicts, Indian defence manufacturers are developing indigenous unmanned aerial systems as well as technologies to detect, disrupt and destroy hostile drones.

These include multi-layer micro-missile counter-drone systems, electronic warfare-based anti-drone solutions and directed-energy weapons. Domestic manufacturers are also working on different categories of drones for surveillance, logistics, interception and offensive operations.

Several advanced platforms are under development, including long-range attack and loitering systems with ranges of up to 1,000 kilometres, jet-powered loitering munitions and interceptor drones.

However, dependence on Chinese-origin components remains a concern. Ensuring the reliability and security of these systems through stringent testing and the development of indigenous alternatives will be essential to achieving genuine self-reliance.

In another important policy initiative, the government has approved the transfer of technology for manufacturing conventional missile systems to private-sector companies. The initiative covers several categories, including surface-to-air missiles, air-to-air missiles, anti-radiation missiles and anti-tank systems. Cruise missiles are also expected to be included in subsequent phases.

The objective is to broaden India’s manufacturing base, increase production capacity and reduce dependence on a limited number of defence suppliers. Greater domestic production will also become necessary as India seeks to expand its defence exports and establish itself as a reliable international supplier.

The central lesson from recent conflicts is that advanced weapon platforms alone cannot guarantee military success. The ability to sustain operations through adequate stocks of ammunition, missiles and other essential supplies is equally critical.

India’s earlier dependence on imported ammunition exposed its military preparedness to external uncertainties, as the Kargil conflict demonstrated. The subsequent shift towards domestic manufacturing represents an important strategic correction.

However, self-reliance must extend beyond assembling weapons within the country. It requires indigenous technologies, secure supply chains, domestic production of critical components, adequate manufacturing capacity and sustained investment in research and development.

Wars are ultimately sustained not only by the weapons a country possesses but also by its ability to replenish them. As future conflicts become increasingly dependent on drones, missiles and sophisticated countermeasures, India’s investment in domestic ammunition and defence manufacturing will be central to protecting its strategic autonomy and long-term military preparedness.