SHIVAJI SARKAR

A political shift is becoming increas- ingly evident in the United States. The Democratic Party’s strong per- formance in the Senate and House of Representatives midterm elections, being described as a ‘blue wave’ or ‘Bluenami’, has opened the door to a significant change in Washing- ton’s political equations.

The results amount to a clear electoral message. Democrats made gains even in con- stituencies where defeating Repub- lican candidates, particularly those backed by President Donald Trump, had once appeared almost impossi- ble. In the United States, the compo- sition of Congress is determined through ballots. In India, meanwhile, questions surrounding electronic voting machines and uncertainties over the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls have kept elec- toral transparency under public scru- tiny.

Setting aside these institutional differences, however, the two coun- tries share several similarities in the political and economic concerns con- fronting ordinary voters. In the United States, rising sand- wich prices have become a symbol of household anxiety. In India, it is the increasing cost of pav bhaji, snacks and everyday refreshments. Prices of breakfast and street food have report- edly risen by as much as 40 per cent.

American households, too, are strug- gling with higher food prices and the rising cost of essential commodities. For ordinary citizens, the cost of liv- ing often matters more than political rhetoric. When prices rise beyond their means, people are forced either to pay more for basic necessities or to compromise on consumption. India may take some satisfaction from the fact that 28 people of Indian origin have entered the US Congress.

But will their presence alter Amer- ican foreign policy or Washington’s approach towards New Delhi? Prob- ably not to any substantial extent. Whatever their ancestry, they are American citizens, and their primary responsibility remains to the inter- ests of the United States, irrespective of whether Trump or another politi- cal leader occupies the White House.

The re-election of Indian-origin lawmakers such as Ami Bera, Ro Khanna, Pramila Jayapal and Su- has Subramanyam strengthens the political representation of the Indi- an-American community in Wash- ington. Its significance for India, however, is largely symbolic. At the same time, the electoral gains made by Black, Latino and Indigenous can- didates reflect the continuing expan- sion of political representation and inclusiveness in American society.

Those expecting a more accommo- dating American approach towards India, or an immediate easing of re- strictions on Russian oil supplies, may have to temper their expecta- tions. Reversing the policies pursued under Trump’s highly personalised and unpredictable style of gover- nance will not be easy. India may have to renegotiate several arrange- ments under the emerging political circumstances.

Much will depend on New Delhi’s diplomatic skills and its ability to convert political changes in Washington into tangible national gains. What relief has the political shift brought? The United States has tradition- ally sought to maintain a relatively affordable standard of living for its citizens, with wages broadly aligned with income levels and access to goods and services at manageable costs.

That arrangement, despite its limitations, has come under pressure during Trump’s confrontational and unpredictable presidency. Wars, rising fuel prices and con- troversial American interventions abroad, including alleged attempts to seize control of petroleum and min- eral resources in different regions, have added to economic uncertainty. The controversy surrounding Ven- ezuela and the broader struggle for control over strategic resources have further complicated the internation- al environment.

The midterm results suggest that a substantial section of the Amer- ican electorate is dissatisfied with these policies. Public opinion has once again demonstrated its ability to influence political power. Indian consumers, too, may find some relief if international energy prices soften. Lower crude oil prices can benefit both the American and Indian econ- omies by reducing pressure on fuel costs and inflation.

The American electoral outcome also coincided with a recovery in In- dian stock markets, which had been experiencing sustained weakness. In- dian equities recorded gains over six consecutive trading sessions. How- ever, it remains uncertain whether this recovery will prove durable or merely represent a temporary mar- ket reaction. Meanwhile, Union Minister for Panchayati Raj, Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying Rajiv Ran- jan Singh, popularly known as Lalan Singh, has announced a proposal to link voter identity cards (EPIC) with biometric authentication for identi- fying beneficiaries and facilitating payments under welfare schemes, instead of relying exclusively on the Aadhaar-based system.

The proposal raises important questions at a time when millions of names are reportedly being removed from electoral rolls. If electoral reg- istration becomes closely linked to access to welfare benefits, people excluded from voter lists could face additional difficulties in accessing government assistance. The larger concern is whether exclusion from the electoral process could indirectly translate into exclusion from essen- tial entitlements.

Such developments could have consequences beyond electoral ad- ministration. They may affect eco- nomic security and deepen social discontent. The sustainability of the recent stock market rally there- fore remains uncertain. There is no straightforward answer. Indeed, some of the economic and social problems that American voters ar more serious proportions in India. India’s corporate sector is also passing through a period of uncer- tainty.

The internal management dispute within the Tata Group ap- pears to be acquiring wider political dimensions, potentially carrying sig- nificant long-term implications. The proposed sale of IDBI Bank is anoth- er issue attracting attention. Turbu- lence within major institutions can have consequences for investor confi- dence and the broader economy. The real test of the pre-Diwali mar- ket recovery will come after the fes- tival.

Sustained gains in share prices and continued foreign portfolio in- vestment will be necessary before the recent rally can be considered a sign of lasting economic confidence. India certainly expects a more constructive relationship with the United States, particularly on tariffs, technology transfers and trade condi- tions. American industries and insti- tutions have benefited considerably from Indian talent.

Washington is also expected to address visa-related concerns affecting nearly three lakh Indian workers and students. However, it would be premature to assume that Democrats will com- pletely reverse existing immigration policies. Some improvement may be possible, but immigration is likely to remain a politically sensitive issue in the United States.

The legislative scrutiny proposed by Democrats could also delay the In- dia-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Differences over labour rights, envi- ronmental standards and regulatory conditions may complicate negoti- ations. Democratic control of both chambers of Congress could strength- en legislative oversight of executive decisions.

This may create oppor- tunities for a more structured and transparent dialogue between New Delhi and Washington. A delayed agreement, after all, is preferable to an agreement that fails to materialise altogether. For now, however, the United States remains absorbed in domestic political contestation, and India will have to wait and negotiate carefully.

The horrors of war and genocide The devastation in Gaza has also emerged as a major factor influenc- ing American public opinion. The destruction of hospitals and schools, children buried under rubble, the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, attacks on Lebanon and confrontations involving Houthi forces have shaken international opinion.

Trump’s reported demand for the live broadcast of an execution further intensified concerns about his political judgement and approach to power. The election results reflected pub- lic unease with militarism and the normalisation of violence. American society has a history of challeng- ing the excesses of its government.

During the Vietnam War, public opposition played a significant role in forcing a reassessment of the mil- itary campaign, including the use of devastating weapons such as napalm. India’s people, too, are not neces- sarily supporters of aggressive na- tionalism. The economic, social and military costs of extreme national- ism can be enormous.

Yet appeals to patriotism and national security sometimes make citizens reluctant to question government policies, even when those policies demand greater public scrutiny. Manipur continues to bear the consequences of prolonged violence. Since May 3, 2023, the state has wit- nessed ethnic clashes, killings and displacement.

Citizens have repeat- edly protested against the continu- ing crisis, but their voices have not received the attention they deserve. The violence has severely affected the economy, social relations and every day life in Manipur and other parts of the Northeast. Yet the response of the administrative machinery has often appeared inadequate.

There has also been limited pub- lic mobilisation around the need for better relations with neighbouring countries. Efforts to strengthen coop- eration among South Asian nations and revitalise regional platforms such as SAARC have remained large- ly stalled. At the same time, Ameri- can citizens can also be criticised for their silence over military actions against Venezuela.

The civilisational and humanitarian costs of such selec- tive responses to violence are consid- erable. At the 18th SAARC Summit in Kathmandu in November 2014, mem- ber states had expressed an ambition to move towards an integrated South Asian Economic Union.

However, growing political tensions between India and Pakistan, alongside recur- ring cross-border security concerns, eventually brought the initiative to a standstill. More than a decade lat- er, the proposed regional economic framework remains largely unreal- ised.

Hopes remain, but the risks are real A divided government in Washing- ton may constrain President Trump’s domestic agenda, but the consequenc- es for India could be mixed. The political developments in the United States coincided with a strengthening of the Indian rupee, which opened at Rs 94.35 against the US dollar, its highest level in two weeks.

Softer crude oil prices pro- vided support to the currency. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding American technology stocks report- edly encouraged investors to move more than $2 billion into Indian eq- uities. From West Asia and the Arab world to Iran, Ukraine and Europe, geopolitical equations are changing rapidly.

India’s central challenge is to safeguard its energy security, com- mercial interests and strategic auton- omy amid these shifting global power dynamics. A Democratic victory does not guarantee an early India-US trade agreement, nor does it automatically promise relief from American pres- sure over India’s purchase of Russian oil. Significant risks remain. India’s energy imports, including those from Russia, continue to face geopolitical and economic pressure.

New Delhi must therefore pursue an independent course based on its national interests. It needs to engage Washington constructively without compromising its strategic autono- my or allowing external political de- velopments to dictate its economic