HAOROKCHAM ANIL

The whole world is astounded by the sudden declaration of ending the emergency in Myanmar by the Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing on 31^st July, 2025 followed by the announcement to hold election in between December 2025 and January, 2026.

Experts, especially in the field of geopolitics started expressing their opinions based on different perspectives from their own lenses and with a framing design to draw their own conclusions. Even more astounding is the lifting of sanctions in certain areas by the US which was imposed on Myanmar post military coup at 21^st February 2021.

This has defied or diluted the very concept of sanctions imposed related with the coup which had dethroned the Government elected by the people and have committed heinous human rights violations in the aftermath of the coup. UN experts are reported to be appalled by the US sudden withdrawal of sanctions against companies providing weapons to Myanmar junta that are emboldening the regime.

It is quite evident that the interest of US in Myanmar is very strong, an obligatory move for retaining its supremacy in the larger geopolitical game contesting with China through a very calculative step at the crucial juncture by empowering themselves to monitor and regulate both China and India, the two-rising power in the region using helpless Myanmar as a harbor – one stone for two birds.

The imposition of unprecedented tariff by Trump especially aimed at China has provoked with the reciprocal ban on the export of Rare Earth Elements (REE), a precision strike at the Achilles Heel, hampering US to a great extent across varied sectors including its EVs, Smartphones, defence sectors manufacturing military hardware like the state-of-the-art missiles, fighter jets, night vision goggles etc. as US imports between 80 to 95% of its requirement from China.

On the other hand, China had already monopolized the production and export of these elements because of the full-scale mining technology and the immense deposits they have, which is assumed to be more than the total deposits of all countries combined. Myanmar also have large deposits of rare earth elements unfortunately lacking the technology for mining, processing and production like China. India and many other countries fall in this category.

With an aim to capitalize on the opportunity of harvesting the REE deposits found in Myanmar, US has lifted sanctions imposed on Myanmar. Presently mining of these REE is done under the Chinese shadow at Kachin Province where the majority of the population are Christians and are fighting against the military Junta.

Myanmar on the other hand has no other options but to maneuver between the contesting US and Chinese policies because of their weak economy through long isolation and sanctions at the International trade arena by the US and its allied countries. These sanctions had weakened the country’s economy to the grave.

The recent warming up of relations between US-Pak and US-Myanmar leading to the partial lifting of sanctions and ending of State of Emergency, declaration of election might be a game changer and a direct threat to the Chinese by the present geopolitical development of the regions as CPEC and CMEC are strategic and functioning as a bypass against Malacca-Dilemma.

While the above is the canvas of a larger geopolitical game in the region, but if we focus, funneling down and framing the scope to “Trade and Economy”, we can question ourselves as what does the end of emergency and the changing policy of Myanmar holds for the NE states of India, particularly Manipur? Manipur, gateway to South East Asia because of the location and the land port, Integrated Check Post (ICP) connecting with the rest of the ASEAN has been deprived of the benefits and advantages expected with its strategic importance, geography and the historical backgrounds.

Long before the formal inauguration of Indo­Myanmar Border Trade in April 1995, Moreh-Tamu border market had served the people of Manipur and the rest of NER India with an affordable items of consumer goods like garments, house hold items, electronic gadgets etc. that are originated from China and partly from Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea etc.

These has been acting as a major component of the market and economy of the state of Manipur since past many decades. In-spite of the turmoil due to the coup in Myanmar, Feb., 2021 and the prevailing ethnic crises in the state of Manipur between the Meiteis and the Kukis that begun from ^3rd May, 2023, these third country products of unofficial in nature still played the vital role in the economy of state.

December, 2025 will mark the “Decade of Normal Trade”, of Indo-Myanmar Border Trade signed in 1994 and implemented 1995 and upgraded in 2015 as normal trade, which is a part of the most ambitious foreign policy of India back then, “Look East Policy”. Unfortunately, the most awaited, i.e. the inclusion of third countries products originating from China, Thailand, Vietnam, South Korea etc. have not been included as whitelisted items and could not be traded through the land routes reaching Tamu-Moreh as there are no formal Trade Agreements with these countries. Ironically, there’s almost no house in the state that does not have goods originated from these countries that are transported through the border town of Moreh-Tamu which ultimately reaches Manipur and the other parts of India.

BCIM (Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar), Economic corridor which is 2800 Km long formerly known as Kunming Initiative, was established as proposed by the eminent Bangladeshi economist Prof. Rehman Sobhan with the purpose of connecting the landlocked southwestern province of China, Yunnan to India, starting from Kunming to Kolkata.

The idea is to boost regional economic activities, promote investments, improve tourism and to enhance people to people connect amongst these regional parts of South East Asian countries with China. The corridor passes through Kunming, Longling, Ruili, (China), Muse, Mandalay, Tamu (Myanmar), Moreh, Imphal, Silchar, (India), Sylhet, Dhaka, Jessore (Bangladesh) then finally reaching Kolkotta (India). This corridor connects the world’s most populous countries with fastest growing economies.

Manipur which is lying in the transit zone naturally becomes the land connector, a land bridge and a land link giving an immense opportunity for the development from the lens of economy and employment generation. Given these emerging circumstances, Manipur will also act as a hotspot of multisectoral investments and an attractive tourist spot owing to its geographical location, scenic beauty and serenity of the state.

Moreover, the opportunities for development of NER India, especially Manipur is again enhanced by the India Myanmar Thailand (IMT), 1360 Km long corridor starting from Maesot-Myawaddy (Thailand – Myanmar) border passing through Mandalay and finally reaching Tamu-Moreh. The connectivity from Mandalay to Tamu-Moreh becomes confluence of two giant economic zones; the ASEAN and the world largest manufacturer, China.

Unfortunately, India’s limited interest in the BCIM-EC and IMT Trilateral Highway perhaps looking at the larger geopolitical game and a passive resistance opposing the economic strategies of China as it encompasses as a part of BRI (Belt & Road Initiatives) which India is wary of mainly because of CPEC (China- Pakistan Economic Corridor) that passes through POK (Pakistan occupied Kashmir) which is a disputed area and a bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947.

These geopolitical maneuvers had dimmed the enthusiasm and hope of realizing the economic potential of the region for the people of Manipur and NE India. The fear of dumping by Chinese and ASEAN’s products in the Indian market and especially NE region is another big factor that cannot be ignored as India is comparatively weak in the manufacturing sector.

The aftermath of Covid-19 pandemic and the continuing crises in Myanmar arising from the coup of Feb.2021 is another issue which can also be considered as “blame on the faith”. Under these circumstances, IMT trilateral highway and BCIM-EC became stalled against the hope, anticipation and is now looking more like a hollow HYPE.

On the flip side, the China – India bilateral trade continues to grow through conventional ports with the present size pegged at 114 billion US$ import and export amounting to around 14.25 billion US$ resulting in a negative trade balance of 99.75 billion US$. Similar is the case with the ASEAN, India imports about 68.55 billion US$ and exports around 32.71 billion US$ making a negative trade balance of 35.84 billion USD.

The recent geopolitical development in the region especially signs of thawing of India-China relations signaled by the visit of Chinese foreign Minister at New Delhi and announcement of enhanced bilateral relationship including opening of Border Trade (India-China) at one hand, US-Myanmar relationship development marked by partial lifting of sanctions, ending of Emergency, declaration of national election in Dec.2025 on the other side gives a golden opportunity in the region to bring peace and harmony in the region and an opportunity of restarting the economic activities at BCIM-EC, IMT etc.

This land route (trade route) has almost shortened by almost 5 times or lesser from the distance of nearest sea port from China to India making a significant reduction in transport cost, allowing more people-to-people connect.

The opportunities with these corridors are tremendous for the people of the region. For a state like Manipur with minimal revenue contribution to the nation’s growth as indicated in state budget and other statistical data & reports, there is an utmost requirement of these routes and to formalize the trade as it will be a major contributing factor to the development of state economy.

This may also work as common economic force for all ethnic communities of the region giving a possible & positive change towards their political outlook and aspirations with the ultimate goal of peace and progress.

At the conclusion of this article, I would like to emphasize that, with the activation of these routes, goods would be much cheaper and affordability issues would be addressed up to certain extent. Whether you buy things from our own domestic industry or from the foreign countries, the one giving you more economic and developmental mileage is more important as “Saving a pie is a national saving and wasting a pie is a national wastage”

• This article was published in the Sangai Express om 24^th August, 2025.

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